China and America

Blowing hot and cold

What to make of the latest row between China and America over Taiwan?

Feb 2nd 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC | From The Economist online

Shutterstock

IS IT a crisis or just (show) business as usual? With China and America, it can be hard to tell. Almost immediately after the United States said that it intended to sell more than $6 billion-worth of arms to Taiwan, the Chinese went into a spin. They summoned the American ambassador to denounce this interference in China’s “internal affairs” (Taiwan is part of the mainland, says the government in Beijing), threatened to cut off military ties with the United States and said they would impose sanctions on American firms involved in the Taiwan deal.

None of this looks good for the world’s most consequential relationship. From global warming to the sickly world economy to stopping nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, co-operation between the established superpower and the rising one is vital to world stability. Why should either want to jeopardise this relationship?

That question has produced several theories. One is that China’s spritely economy is making it less afraid of conflict with a tiring America, especially when it thinks that “core” interests such as its claim to sovereignty over Taiwan or Tibet are at stake. The other is that America timed the Taiwan arms sale in part to punish China—for its shabby treatment of Barack Obama during last November’s presidential visit to Beijing, for its foot-dragging at December’s Copenhagen climate summit and for its reluctance to support new United Nations sanctions on Iran. Of course, neither theory excludes the other and bits of both may be true. But a third possibility is that there is in fact less to this “crisis” than meets the eye.

America is obliged under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to provide the island with the arms it needs to defend itself. America and China both knew that the United States would announce the package at some time and that China would vehemently oppose it, as it always does. The package includes some sophisticated weapons, such as Black Hawk helicopters and Harpoon missiles, but it does not include F-16 fighters that the Taiwanese would dearly like. As to the timing, says a senior administration official, “this is one of those issues where the timing is never right.” It certainly would not have been clever to announce the sale immediately before or after last year’s presidential goodwill visit to China.

If America’s announcement was expected, so was the indignant Chinese response. Denunciation and the cancellation of some military-co-operation meetings is in keeping with previous Chinese reactions. A new element this time was the public threat of Chinese sanctions against American firms involved in the Taiwan deal, but most of these have little or no business in China. One big exception is Boeing, which is huge in China. But for that reason it is unlikely that the Chinese will follow up on this particular threat.

If the Taiwan weapons spat blows over, American officials will hail what they nowadays call the more “mature” relationship they have nurtured with China during Mr Obama’s first year. But many tests lie ahead. Some are mainly symbolic, such as a forthcoming meeting between Mr Obama and Tibet’s spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, which the Americans postponed last year to prevent it souring the president’s China trip. Others are more concrete, such as China’s reluctance to go along with new sanctions on Iran or to respond to America’s pleas to revalue the yuan. A world-shaking falling-out between China and America is always possible. But the falling-out over the Taiwan arms package is probably not it.